El Niño in Tararua

El Niño conditions are established across the Pacific and are expected to continue through 2026 and into summer.

Now is a good time to prepare. Small steps such as checking your water use, making sure you have backup plans for dry conditions and keeping up to date with weather and water information can help you and your community get through the summer.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that begins in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It happens when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific become warmer than usual, alongside changes in the trade winds and atmospheric circulation. These changes can influence weather patterns around the world.

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of a larger climate pattern known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El Niño events occur irregularly, generally every two to seven years, and typically last around nine to 12 months.

El Niño in Tararua

El Niño can influence the weather we experience across Tararua, particularly during spring and summer. While every El Niño event is different, New Zealand generally experiences more frequent and stronger westerly winds during El Niño.

For Tararua, El Niño can mean an increased chance of hotter, drier and windier conditions, particularly across the eastern parts of the district. While El Niño does not mean we will have a dry summer, it can increase the likelihood of prolonged dry periods and put extra pressure on water supplies, farms, gardens and the risk of rural and vegetation fires.

This could mean:

• More pressure on water supplies - hot, dry weather can increase water use while reducing rainfall that replenishes water sources. Water restrictions may be introduced if needed.
• Drier soils and pasture - prolonged dry periods can affect farms, gardens, crops and rural properties.
• Increased fire risk - dry vegetation combined with warm and windy conditions can increase the risk of rural and vegetation fires.
• Strong winds - more frequent westerly conditions can bring periods of strong winds and contribute to drying.

El Niño doesn't guarantee a drought or a completely dry summer. It changes the likelihood of certain weather patterns, and significant rainfall can still occur.

What you can do now

Preparing early can help you manage the impacts of a potentially drier and warmer summer.

Save water

• Check for leaking taps, toilets and pipes - and fix them!
• Use water efficiently around you home and garden
• Consider collecting rainwater for suitable outdoor uses
• Keep up to date with water restrictions before using water outdoors - Current Water Restrictions | Tararua District Council
• Report leaks in public areas to Council - Contact Us | Tararua District Council

Prepare your property

• Plan ahead for gardens, crops and pasture during dry periods
• If you have stock, check that you have enough water and feed available
• Keep vegetation around your property managed to help reduce fire risk

Be fire safe

• Check the current fire danger and fire restrictions before lighting any outdoor fires - Fire prevention and fire safety | Fire and Emergency New Zealand
• Take extra care with machinery, vehicles and activities that could create sparks in dry conditions

Keep informed

Weather and conditions can change quickly, particularly over summer. Keep an eye on the latest forecasts, water restrictions, fire conditions and local emergency information so you can respond early if conditions change.

We've put together a list of trusted sources for weather, climate, water, fire and emergency information to help you stay informed.